2024 election is a ‘big risk event’ for stocks: strategist
Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citi, joins Catalyst to analyze how the presidential election could impact both U.S. stocks and U.S.-China policy aimed at recovering a struggling economy. do. Kaiser predicted the election would be a 50-50 market and stressed the importance of turnout. Opinions on both sides are deeply divided, but he said, “It’s a little hard to know, to be honest, who is better or worse.” Economic policy seems to be converging rather than diverging. ” he claimed. He noted that both platforms will be negative for stocks and called the election a “major risk event.” “I think it’s very difficult to trade with direction because I think it’s basically a toss-up and you have to grit your teeth a little bit. “I think so,” he explains. If you go back to 2016, that’s probably not likely, and if you’re hoping for what happened in 2020, this is probably not likely. ” In addition to economic policy, Kaiser noted that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have taken similar positions on China. “Agreement on this point means we have a somewhat adversarial relationship. So if you’re a Chinese policymaker, it’s hard to imagine that either candidate would necessarily be positive on this point.” ” But it’s not all bad news for China. “The positive side is that there is no positioning, especially institutional investors, who have been avoiding China risks for a long time. So I think this initial stimulus will continue and actually generate profits,” he said. If I could,” he explains. Once we have some consumer spending, we will need to reposition ourselves and that will be a bull case. “I think the bearish case is that people are testifying for some reason, and I think it’s going to be very difficult for Chinese policy to actually flip the emotional switch here.” Kaiser concluded. For more expert insights and the latest market trends, click here to watch the full episode of Catalyst. This post was written by Melanie Leal
