Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a major escalation. Nasrallah was one of Iran’s most important allies. Iran’s response could escalate the conflict or spark a broader war involving the world’s major powers.
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Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader for more than 30 years, is a major escalation in the Middle East conflict.
It is up to Iran to ease tensions.
Nasrallah was Iran’s most trusted proxy in its conflict with Israel and power struggles with Saudi Arabia and the United States. Iranian state media confirmed on Saturday that a senior Iranian commander who worked with Nasrallah was also killed in the attack.
Israel last assassinated an Iranian commander in April, when it attacked the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing several military officers, including Brigadier General Johnson. General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force.
Days after the attack, Iran telegraphed its response before launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in unprecedented retaliation. Israel, with the help of the United States, intercepted almost all of these missiles.
Experts said at the time that Iran likely expected most of these missiles to be intercepted and wanted to avoid a broader war with Israel that could lead to a conflict with the United States. He said he has expressed his intentions.
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But with Israel showing no signs of slowing down its operations to dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, the whole world is waiting to see how Iran will respond this time, and a broader war involving major powers could be on the horizon. We are paying attention to whether or not.
“This is expected to be the ultimate step-up or retreat moment for Iran,” said Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit think tank. Maybe,” he told Business. insider. “Iran is sulking, but in reality it is powerless. This powerlessness is due to a simple fact: Iran does not want war with Israel, but it does not want war with the United States, which would likely cause the Islamic Republic to collapse. It’s the same as the war.” ”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said in a statement on Saturday that Iran supports Hezbollah but does not threaten any military response.
Still, Israel ordered its people to avoid large gatherings, anticipating a reaction from Hezbollah, other proxies in the region, and perhaps Iran. Air raid sirens continued to sound in central Israel throughout Saturday evening local time.
The Israel Defense Forces announced on Saturday that it had intercepted a rocket fired from Yemen by Iran’s Houthi proxy group. The Houthis have gained a new level of notoriety by attacking Red Sea shipping lanes and firing drones and rockets at Israel, which has called for a ceasefire. Fire in Gaza.
“This is a precarious position for Iran,” Jonathan Panikov, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Business Insider. “Failure to do so risks undermining its legitimacy in the eyes of proxies and supporters of Iran’s revolution across the region. But engaging in a widespread and deadly response would precipitate a regional war.” And since April, Tehran has probably realized that it can do damage to Israel but lack the military capacity to bounce back better than when the conflict began. Almost certainly. ”
