As Russia’s war with Ukraine continues with no clear end in sight, Ukrainians are faced with a cold reality. President Joe Biden has been in close contact with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, but Biden’s support for Zelensky does not necessarily signal continued financial support for Ukraine by the US government.
The United States has been the single largest donor to Ukraine since Russian forces invaded the country in February 2022. Since then, the US has sent about US$113 billion in cash, military supplies, machinery, food and other humanitarian aid to Ukraine. supplies.
Biden called on Congress to approve an additional $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and other allies. About $60 billion of this will be spent on Ukraine.
The Senate passed this foreign aid bill in February 2024, but deliberation has stalled in the House of Representatives. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has not authorized a vote on the bill.
President Zelensky stated on April 8, 2024, “If Congress does not support Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war,” indicating the stakes for continued U.S. aid.
Russia has stepped up its bombing campaign against Ukraine in recent months, but the front lines between Russia and Ukraine have remained largely static for the past year.
It is not entirely clear when and how the House of Representatives will vote on the Ukraine issue. Still, as an Eastern European researcher, I think there are several important reasons why the United States is unlikely to cut funding to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and President Joe Biden hold a press conference in Washington, DC in December 2023. Alex Wong/Getty Images
Opinions are divided within the Republican Party over aid to Ukraine.
Prime Minister Johnson is under pressure to postpone the vote on the Ukraine foreign aid bill for several reasons. One major factor is the struggle between Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
While some centrist Republican politicians support funding for Ukraine and are pushing for a vote on the foreign aid package, other far-right Republicans are pushing for legislation that prioritizes what they claim are U.S. interests. I would like to see more emphasis on domestic issues.
Another problem is the growing threat from other Republicans to remove Johnson from his leadership role.
Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced a motion on March 22, 2024, urging a vote that could force Johnson out of House leadership if he tries to move forward with the aid package. .
Delayed benefits to Ukraine for Putin
Ukraine is distributing ammunition and supplies as the House of Representatives remains deadlocked. This in turn gives Russia an opportunity to strengthen its military.
The delay in foreign aid to Ukraine has given Putin time to move forward with plans to buy ballistic missiles from Iran. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby expressed concern in early January 2024 that Russia was moving closer to acquiring short-range ballistic weapons from Iran.
Russia has already purchased drones from Iran and ballistic missiles from North Korea.
In February, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan noted that the Ukrainian military had lost a key resistance stronghold in eastern Ukraine called Avdiivka to Russia due to ammunition shortages.
Without foreign aid from the United States, Ukraine faces a strategic disadvantage that could lead to a Russian victory. That could lead to Russia increasing its threat to neighboring NATO countries.
US needs Europe to compete with China
There are other reasons why many experts think it could help the United States help Ukraine. One factor is the global power competition between the United States and China.
Russian and Chinese leaders declared a military and political partnership days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. On April 9, 2024, he announced that he wanted to explore ways to strengthen joint security efforts across Asia and Europe.
U.S. political and military leaders say that supporting Ukraine and fighting back against Russia is one of the clear ways to prevent China from increasing its global political and military influence. are.
Admiral Samuel J. Paparo said in February 2024 that Russia’s potential losses in Ukraine “are a deterrent in the Western Pacific and directly reassure our partners.”
The admiral said China was studying an invasion of Ukraine for its own purposes to “produce a short and sharp conflict that would represent a fait accompli for the whole world.” He called on the United States to continue funding the war in Ukraine.
The United States needs long-time allies in Europe to help push back against China, but the effectiveness of deterrence depends on the size of the deterrent force.
Elie Ratner, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, recently explained this principle and how it relates to China: ”
Foreign aid benefits the U.S. military industry
Most of the US military aid to Ukraine consists of arms and ammunition from existing US stockpiles. If Congress approves an additional $60 billion for Ukraine, more than half of that money would go to U.S. factories that make missiles and munitions.
In December 2023, Biden signed the U.S. Defense Policy Act, authorizing a record $886 billion in spending from July 2023 to June 2024. This includes a 5.2% pay increase for soldiers, $11.5 billion and $800 to support efforts to deter China. $1 million to support Ukraine’s counterattack war.
But it also allows the purchase of new ships, aircraft and other types of ammunition. For defense stocks, this means a promising start to 2024. That would likely boost profits for defense contractors looking to replenish supplies the military ships to Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers work on how to evacuate injured people during a training exercise in central Ukraine in March 2024. Valentina Polishchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Americans continue to support aid to Ukraine
Although a majority of Americans still support U.S. aid to Ukraine, about half of Republicans said in December 2023 that the U.S. is providing too much money to the country.
Politicians do not necessarily follow public opinion, but there are clear reasons why cutting funding to Ukraine is not in the best interest of the United States.
