Important points
The U.S. gross domestic product report was released Wednesday, just days before an election in which the economy is a top issue. Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama, Mr. Trump, and Mr. Biden used economic growth to appeal to voters. Analysts said economic growth is often good news for incumbents seeking re-election.
With less than a week until the presidential election, voters will get the final few economic indicators this week before Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th.
According to a Pew Research poll, the economy is a top concern for voters, with 81% saying it was the most important issue when heading to the polls.
Despite the stock market crash in 2024, economists said voters often look to other indicators when assessing the health of the economy.
“The real economy tends to give better signals about election outcomes than financial markets. Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa predict that income, employment, GDP growth and consumption It states that a wide range of economic indicators, including stock prices, are more important than market indicators such as stock prices.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of goods and services sold in the economy. According to the report, the economic growth rate from July to September was 2.8%. GDP growth was slightly slower than some economists expected, but still at historically strong levels.
Here’s how GDP looked in the third quarter leading up to the last election.
Biden wins amid pandemic economic shock
President Joe Biden won the 20202 election when GDP in the third quarter was 35.2%. The figure was unusually high as the economy recovers from a 28.1% drop in GDP in the second quarter due to pandemic-era lockdowns.
Trump wins amid economic growth
When former President Donald Trump won the 2016 election, GDP growth in the third quarter was 2.9%, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. This was close to the all-time high median GDP of 3.1% from 1947, when the government began tracking GDP, to Wednesday.
Mr. Romney failed to take advantage of the slow economy.
In 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney benefited from the economic downturn, with GDP growth at 0.6% in the third quarter, compared to the previous three quarters. But despite the economic downturn, Romney was unable to oust then-President Barack Obama.
Mr. Obama faced an economic slowdown when he was reelected, and economists generally said it would take a sharp economic downturn to turn public opinion away from the incumbent.
“Unless there is a recession during or just before an election, first-term incumbents usually have an advantage. Unless there is a recession, incumbents have always won since World War II,” Phillips and Krupa write. Ta.
Obama wins despite economic downturn due to financial crisis
Mr. Obama ran for president during the 2008 financial crisis, when a weak housing market undermined economic stability. The economy began to weaken in the third quarter of 2008, contracting by 2.1%.
President Bush rides out economic boom to win re-election
In 2004, former President George W. Bush won reelection, thanks in part to a strong economy that produced 3.8% growth in the third quarter. GDP in the second quarter of 2004 was also strong at 3.1%.
President Bush outperforms Gore amid economic turmoil
Bush first won the election in 2000, but the economic downturn may have pushed him to the top in a close race against Democratic candidate Al Gore. Voters saw economic growth of just 0.4% in the third quarter of 2000, a sharp decline from the 7.5% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
