Donald Trump is hoping to push several battleground state Republican Senate candidates over the finish line. But some of his supporters say they plan to support Democrats in those races instead. These split-vote voters could ultimately have a major impact on the country.
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Recent presidential election cycles have seen a sharp decline in the level of ticket splitting, where people vote for candidates from different parties on their ballots.
About 20 years ago, then-Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry lost Republican-leaning states like Arkansas and North Dakota, where incumbent Democratic senators Blanche Lincoln and Byron Dorgan were defeated. won smoothly.
This type of ticket splitting was usually not considered unusual.
But things changed in 2020. Maine was the only state that year in which voters supported one party’s presidential candidate (Democrat Joe Biden) and the other party’s Senate candidate (Republican Susan Collins).
Dozens of incumbent Democratic senators are running for re-election in November in states that remain closely contested between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
But heading into November, there are some interesting dynamics at play in key battleground states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A relatively small but significant bloc of Trump supporters also supports Democratic Senate candidates.
While many of these Trump supporters have long pledged allegiance to the former president, many of the Democrats running have more moderate political brands, which has so far helped boost Republican support. It has an advantage in opinion polls over the government.
Here’s how pro-Trump ticket splitters will definitely help President Harris if she wins the general election, or how she might cause problems for Trump’s policies if she emerges the winner. Let’s see if there is.
go ahead of the crowd
Even before Mr. Biden ended his reelection bid, Democrats in battleground states running in the most competitive Senate races were generally leading in opinion polls.
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Although Mr. Biden struggled against Mr. Trump, many voters had already begun to differentiate between the president-elect and the candidate he voted against earlier this year.
Mr. Trump is an avid supporter of Republican Senate candidates such as Kali Lake of Arizona, Mike Rogers of Michigan, Bernie Moreno of Ohio, and David McCormick of Pennsylvania. And he implored his supporters to vote for these candidates.
But Democrats of these races have largely defied today’s traditional political norms.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll of five Senate races found that while an average of 7% of likely voters supported Trump, they also expressed support for Democratic Senate candidates.
States surveyed included Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Of the five states, Ohio is the most likely to vote for Trump, as he won easily in both 2016 and 2020. And the latest Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Trump with a 6-point advantage over Ms. Harris (50% to 44%). There are many likely voters in the Buckeye State.
In Michigan, a competitive state at the presidential level, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a lead in the latest Senate polls. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
However, the same poll showed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Moreno by 4 percentage points among likely voters (47% to 43%). Mr. Brown also has more than 13% of Republicans in polls, a level of cross-border support that helps him in red-leaning states.
The Times/Siena poll also found Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego leading Lake by 6 points (49% to 43%) in Arizona. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin led Mr. Rogers by 5 points (47% to 42%). Additionally, among likely voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Sens. Bob Casey Jr. and Tammy Baldwin outperformed their Republican opponents by nine points and seven points, respectively.
Why is this important?
If Democrats take the lead in the most competitive Senate races in the most competitive battleground states, they will be pushed to the brink of maintaining their majority.
For Democrats, if they win both safe and battleground states along with Ohio, the party would gain 49 seats. In that case, Montana Sen. Jon Tester would need to win reelection to win 50 seats. (Mr. Tester is currently embroiled in a tough re-election battle against Republican Tim Sheehy in a state where Mr. Trump is projected to win by double digits.)
Democrats are now looking to expand their power in the Senate by investing more money in Florida and Texas. Both states lean Republican at the presidential level, but the Senate race is poised to be close.
If Harris wins the election, the best-case scenario would be for her to maintain a majority. That’s because a Democratic-led Senate would be needed to not only pass much of Ms. Harris’ agenda, but also approve most of the attorney general’s appointments.
If Harris wins in November and Democrats pick up exactly 50 seats, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will have a majority thanks to the vice president’s tie-breaking ability.
And Democrats can thank some of President Trump’s voters for that.
But if Mr. Trump wins the election and pro-Trump ticket splitters help maintain the Democratic majority, it would put a brake on conservative policy.
The Democratic Senate will serve as a check on President Trump. If Democrats flip the House, that chamber will once again check him. And even if Republicans retain control of the House for a potential second term for Trump, they will clash with the Democratic-led Senate on a variety of issues.
Ticket splitters supporting Trump could therefore become one of the most important voting blocs in the 2024 election.
