Kamala Harris made her first trip to the border as a 2024 presidential candidate in September. Harris has been crafting her message on immigration to counter President Trump’s longtime border dominance. But her speech in Arizona wasn’t just about appealing to Southwest voters.
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Immigration is one of the defining issues of the 2024 election.
So it was no surprise that Vice President Kamala Harris visited the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, one of the country’s most battleground states this year, on Friday.
Harris’ visit to Douglas, a border city of about 16,000 people, was notable because it was her first trip to the southern border since launching her Democratic presidential campaign in late July.
Both Harris and former President Donald Trump are fighting to win Arizona by rallying independents and large Latinos in the state’s suburbs.
Ms. Harris has attacked Mr. Trump’s role in blocking a bipartisan Congressional immigration bill that would have overhauled the asylum system and increased the number of Border Patrol agents. And Trump wants to tie Harris to the record levels of migrant unrest that have severely overwhelmed Border Patrol agents at various points during President Joe Biden’s term in office.
But Harris’ remarks in Douglas weren’t just about winning in Arizona.
She’s trying to reassure swing voters and independents across the country that she’s the candidate who will solve this problem.
“Stopping transnational criminal organizations and fortifying our borders is nothing new to me. And it’s been a long-time priority of mine,” she said, adding that President Trump is poised to do well in November. He said this in a speech in Cochise County, a conservative jurisdiction.
But even in battleground states far from the southern border in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, voters still rank immigration as a top issue. Harris’ message as she races alongside Trump to reach the 270 electoral vote victory threshold is also in rural and suburban areas, where Democratic candidates need to break into the Republican lead to win statewide. is extremely important.
Border security is key, especially among independents
A new poll of Michigan likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College found that immigration was the third most important issue for respondents, with 14% citing it as the most important issue. Ta. (The economy was the most important issue among all voters, with 24% citing it as the most important issue, followed by abortion at 17%.)
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Among voters in rural and small towns, immigration (16%) ranks as the second most important issue, with only the economy ranked higher.
And among independents, immigration and abortion were tied for second-most important issues (13% each). Twenty-five percent of likely independents in Michigan cited the economy as their top issue.
The findings are similar in Wisconsin, where the economy is the top issue among likely voters (28%), followed by abortion (19%) and immigration (12%).
Harris is poised to do well in the Milwaukee and Detroit metropolitan areas, but rural margins in Wisconsin and Michigan will be important. In these Midwestern states, unlike in the South, there are still significant numbers of rural voters who continue to vote Democratic at the presidential level.
Former President Donald Trump has made border security a central pillar of his 2024 election campaign. Olivier Toulon/AFP via Getty Images
Harris’ comments on border security were highly targeted to these voters, many of whom want a bipartisan approach to immigration reform while enforcing current laws. And by drawing on his experience prosecuting drug cartels as California’s attorney general, Mr. Biden is looking to make a change from his approach to the issue, which has been widely criticized by voters in recent years.
“We reject the false choice between securing our borders and creating a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system,” Harris said in a speech Friday. “We can and must do both.”
President Trump has not conceded on this issue.
Trump’s 2016 candidacy was driven by his hard-line stance on immigration, and he plans to carry much the same message in his 2024 campaign.
The biggest exception is that Trump used Biden’s stumbles on immigration to build a significant advantage over him on this issue. But that was before Biden stepped down as the leading candidate and Harris became the standard-bearer for the Democratic Party.
Ms. Harris pursued Mr. Trump on the issue in a way that Mr. Biden could not effectively do. The president at the time was also dealing with high levels of anxiety at the border and a wave of migrants being sent to Chicago and other cities by Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. new york.
Harris on Friday accused Trump of “politicking” on border security and emphasized her determination to tackle fentanyl smuggling and human trafficking if Trump wins the White House.
Trump maintains a sizable lead in opinion polls on this issue, but the gap is narrowing.
A newly released NBC News poll shows Trump leading Harris by 21 points (54% to 33%) on border security among registered voters. This was the former president’s biggest advantage on any of the major issues polled, including the economy.
But Trump’s lead on immigration is down from the 35-point lead he previously held over Biden in an NBC News poll conducted in late January.
President Trump has been highly critical of Harris’ efforts to undermine border security positions. Ahead of the vice president’s visit to Arizona, he again tried to link her to Biden.
“She should go back to the White House and tell the president to close the border,” the former president said.
With just over a month left until the general election, President Trump’s advantage appears to be waning, with Georgia and North Carolina potentially giving Harris a big boost, and a victory for the vice president sending her to the Oval Office. There is a very high possibility that
