Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said ADP’s much larger-than-expected rise in October private sector payrolls, which caused short-term Treasury yields to rise, was discounted as business as usual. said it should. Note.
Economists regularly warn that ADP data is a volatile guide to official payrolls. U.S. companies added 233,000 new jobs in October, the largest increase in 15 months, according to ADP. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected 113,000 new jobs to be added in the October ADP survey.
“This looks strong, but take a deep breath. ADP’s track record of predicting the first official estimate of private payrolls for each month is based on simply looking at the average official statistics for the past six months. Same. And ADP provides no special insight into the impact of a major hurricane,” Tombs wrote. He noted that after Irma hit Florida in September 2017, ADP reported that civilian payrolls increased by 205,000 jobs, but the first official estimate for the same month was a decrease of 33,000 jobs. .
The reported ADP payrolls by region for October showed zero impact from Milton, with a net gain of 60,000 in the Southern Altantic region, which includes Florida. Toombs noted that the region’s increase is the largest since March and nearly double the average of the previous three months. “We expect the hit to payrolls from Milton to be only minor. Milton made landfall on the Wednesday of the survey week, so most weekly workers may have already had some work before the storm. “But it’s hard to imagine that the hurricane somehow boosted employment growth in the affected areas,” he wrote.
