The survey shows that inflation and cost of living are the top two issues for Latinos, along with jobs and the economy. Vice President Kamala Harris’ 14-point lead is the closest for Democratic candidates among Latino voters surveyed in at least the past four elections. The NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll was conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept. 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Economic hardship caused by inflation appears to be accelerating the shift of Latino voters toward the Republican Party, according to a NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey, halving the Democratic lead with critical voters ahead of a close presidential election. I’m letting you do it.
A survey of 1,000 likely Latino voters found Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican candidate former President Donald Trump 54% to 40%. This is significantly smaller than the 36-point lead President Joe Biden had heading into the 2020 election. Biden’s lead is nearly half the 50-point lead that Hillary Clinton held over Trump in 2016, and the number of Latinos in the Democratic field has declined. This suggests a long-term trend.
“The intensity around these issues is quite surprising,” said Eileen Cardona Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, a Democratic polling organization. “The cost of living and inflation are… It’s giving information to a lot of people.” It shows how people think about this country’s economy and its economic future. ”
The survey was conducted from September 15th to September 23rd and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris’ 14-point lead is the narrowest margin Democratic candidates have had among Latino voters surveyed in at least the past four elections dating back to 2012. The survey also found that among Latinos, 54% to 42% want Democratic control of Congress. This points to changes that may be broader than just a presidential election.
“This poll data is not temporary,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who was the Republican pollster for the survey. “This is a continuation of a rapid and sweeping shift in the political identity of one of America’s most important voter groups.”
When it comes to personality issues, Harris has a wide lead among respondents. Latino voters in a 2-to-1 poll think Harris will do a better job of addressing their needs. 48% gave Harris a positive favorability rating, compared to 32% for Trump. And they led Trump by about 20 points or more on the question of who has the right temperament to be president, and who is more trustworthy, capable and competent.
But the survey also shows that inflation and cost of living are the top two issues for Latinos, along with jobs and the economy, reflecting surveys of the broader population. Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris on both counts, with a 46% to 37% lead over who is better at dealing with inflation, and a 45% to 41% lead over who will do better on the economy.
Harris has a 39-point lead on who is best to treat immigrants humanely and protect immigrant rights, a 32-point lead on abortion, and a 5-point lead on crime. is maintained. Harris’ lead on these issues highlights the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump’s rise among Latinos in this poll compared to 2020. are.
Harris’ lead over Trump has narrowed significantly among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with just 10 points favoring the Democratic candidate compared to 44 points in 2020. Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris were tied 47/47 among Latino men, with Mr. Biden leading by 17 points among this group in polls heading into the 2020 election. The Democratic lead among Latino women is sizable at 26 points, but that’s only about half of Biden’s lead in 2020.
Both of these groups rate the economy poorly, and Latino voters as a whole are as pessimistic about the economy as the rest of the country. Only 23% say current economic conditions are “excellent” or “good,” and 77% rate the economy as “fair” or “poor,” according to the August CNBC National Economic Survey. The results were similar to those for all voters in the survey. This is a potential problem for the Democratic Party, since Latinos are fairly reliable Democratic voters and are not at all like Democrats when it comes to economic issues. In the CNBC poll, 42% of Democrats rated the economy as “excellent” or “good,” compared to 23% of Latinos in this survey. 65% of Latinos say their wages are below inflation. That’s about the same as the rest of the population, but 11 points higher than NBC’s 2022 Latino Survey. Young Latina women and adults say they have been hit hardest by rising prices.
Among those who said their lives were falling behind, 48% cited grocery costs as having the biggest impact, 34% cited rent and mortgages, and 10% cited rising medical costs. I am.
Although Latinos hold vastly different views on immigration, it is only rated as the fourth most important area of concern, behind inflation, jobs, and even threats to democracy. According to the survey, 62% of respondents believe that immigrants help the country more than they harm it, while 35% said they disagree. This is the smallest positive outcome for Latino immigrants since at least 2006.
The poll shows Trump leading Harris 47-34 on the question of who is better at border security and immigration.
Fifty-two percent of Latino voters said it was more important to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants and prevent discrimination, while 47% said securing the border and stopping immigrants from entering the country illegally was more important. answered that it was more important.
Still, 91% support creating a path to citizenship for spouses of undocumented immigrants, and 87% support creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children. There is.
Here’s the demographic profile of Latino voters, according to the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey:
52% say they primarily speak English, and the rest say they speak only Spanish or both. 56% trace their family heritage to Mexico. 16% to Puerto Rico. 11% in Spain. 5% for Cuba. 5% for the Dominican Republic. 49% identify as Democrats, 37% as Republicans, and 13% as independents. 32% say they are liberal; 37% are moderate. 29% are conservative. 49% Catholic, 21% Protestant, 28% other/none.
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